前沿 AI 实验室会迎来自己的 WeWork 时刻吗？

Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust· Gary Marcus·2026-10-13 08:28· 48 分钟前AI 评分44

Could this be the Frontier Labs’ WeWork moment?

AI 导读

Gary Marcus 质疑 Frontier Labs 的高估值：tokenmaxxing 热潮已退，中国开源权重模型引发价格战，OpenAI 刚把营收预期下调 200 亿美元，加之失控智能体带来的责任风险和美国上诉法院一项新的版权裁决，使其寻求的巨额估值越来越难以成立。OpenAI 已将 IPO 推迟至 2027 年，Anthropic 据称下月上市但尚未公开 S-1。

正文

In May, at the peak of tokenmaxxing, people were talking about OpenAI IPO’ing at a trillion dollars, Anthropic at two trillion dollars. Maybe that will still happen, but it probably shouldn’t.

Tokenmaxxing died, Chinese open-weight models forced price wars, OpenAI just revised it revenue forecast down $20 billion and the so-called “rogue AI” (really just bad software) fiasco hadn’t yet made the news. With the errant, and possibly criminal, nature of poorly controlled agents now front and center, potential liability is clearly becoming a major new issue. LLM’s might well someday be renamed Large Liability Modules.

A significant new copyright decision by a U.S. appeals court also just undermined the generative AI companies:

Against all of this, it’s harder and harder to fathom how the companies could really merit the enormous valuations they are seeking. This is perhaps part of why OpenAI has pushed back their OpenAI until 2027. (Anthropic is supposedly going to IPO next month, but notably still has not publicly released its S-1.)

Two things I read this morning, jet lagged in New Dehli, seem even more ominous.

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来源：Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust · garymarcus.substack.com