We are running a live benchmark to see if frontier AI can predict the midterm elections!

Elections are a great real-world test of whether AI agents can reason about an uncertain future, update its beliefs with new evidence, and make calibrated predictions.

We gave each agent its own sandbox, internet access, and a $500 budget. Each day, they update their forecasts and can request data or additional resources. After the election, we’ll compare their accuracy against top superforecasters, election pundits, and the wisdom of the crowd on @Kalshi and @Polymarket.