软件工程实现全面自动化的现状表明,目前工程师数量较 2025 年更多且需求仍在增长,工作强度也达到历史最高。虽然代码几乎 100% 由 Agent 编写,但采用 AI 后企业的整体盈利底线通常没有明显变动。自动化系统某一环节会产生新的摩擦并将瓶颈转移至别处,因此必须以系统思维来看待。
Some observations about the "total" automation of software engineering: 1. There are more software engineers now than in 2025, and demand is growing. 2. Software engineers have never worked harder than they do now. 3. They largely don't write code anymore, agents write ~100% of the code. 4. The bottom line of the companies that employs these engineers and agents (i.e. the terminal purpose of all this code) is typically not budging as a result of AI adoption. This is why you have to think in terms of systems. Automating one aspect of a system creates its own friction and moves the bottlenecks elsewhere.
来源:François Chollet · x.com