Gartner predicts cost pressure will force more than 80% of neocloud providers to cease independent operations by 2030.

Hyperscalers face less risk because their large, diversified revenue could plausibly sustain AI investments for years.

Gartner also forecasts AI-optimized IaaS spending will grow from $66B in 2027 to $174B in 2030.

That growth is too low for most AI compute providers to recover their investments before current AI chips are replaced.

AI data center owners would need $8.5T in cumulative revenue through 2030 to cover announced capex, financing costs and a 12% return on invested capital, yet Gartner forecasts attributable AI revenue of no more than $3.6T.

On the current trajectory, more than $4T in asset value could be exposed to write-down risk through 2032, and Gartner does not expect the 12% return to be reached before the end of 2032.