AI 抛售潮与知名股市崩盘的对比分析
The AI sell-off compared to well-known stock market crashes
S&P 500 指数目前较历史高点下跌 6%，其中 Nasdaq 下跌 11%，美国芯片股则下跌 36%，跌幅与 Covid 期间相当。历史数据显示，自 1928 年以来，达到 6% 跌幅的 56 次下跌中仅有 16 次超过 15%，且不同历史时期股市及芯片股恢复至新高所需的时间差异显著。
6 Nov 2026
The S&P 500 is 6% below its record, a small fall next to past crashes: since 1928, only 16 of 56 drops that reached 6% went past 15%. Tech took more of the hit. The Nasdaq is 11% down and US chip stocks 36%, as deep as their Covid fall. How long a recovery takes varies just as much: after dot-com, the S&P 500 was back at its record in 7 years, chip stocks in 18.
The S&P 500 at the close on 6 Nov 2026
- Below record
- −6%
- From its record close
- Thursday 5 Nov
- −4.4%
- Worst day since 4 Apr 2025
- Trading days since record
- 23
- Since 6 Oct 2026
- Slides that went past 15%
- 16 of 56
- Slides since 1928 that reached 6%
How far the S&P 500 fell below a record close
Each line runs from a record high to the low that followed. Eight of the 16 falls past 15% since 1928 are shown.
Daily closes to 6 Nov 2026
Mild for the S&P 500, a crash for chip stocks
How far each index is below its record now, against the lows of its own best-known past falls. US chip stocks (the PHLX Semiconductor index) are 36% down from their 22 Jun record, as deep as their Covid fall.
Daily closes to 6 Nov 2026
After dot-com, the S&P 500 took 7 years to recover, chip stocks 18
Years from each index's record close to its first close back at or above it. Prices only: with dividends reinvested, most recoveries were shorter. These are worst cases, for someone who bought at the record.
S&P 500NasdaqUS chip stocks
Great Depression25.0 yearsBefore indexBefore index
1973 oil shock7.5 years5.7 yearsBefore index
1987 crash1.9 years1.9 yearsBefore index
Dot-com7.2 years15.1 years17.7 years
2008 crisis5.5 yearsInside dot-comInside dot-com
Covid6 months3.5 months3.5 months
20222.0 years2.3 years2.0 years
April 20254 months6.5 months1.2 years
AI sell-offNot yet: 1 month, −6%Not yet: 1 month, −11%Not yet: 4.5 months, −36%
About the data
- The S&P 500 is the price index, without dividends, from daily closes on Yahoo Finance. Before March 1957 the series is its predecessor, the S&P 90.
- A fall runs from a record close to the next record, so the 2011 fall sits inside the 2007 to 2013 one. Its depth is the lowest close before the next record.
- "AI sell-off" is our name for the slide since the 6 October 2026 record.
来源：Hacker News-首页 · kadoa.com